最初の数ヶ月は変わらない値動きとなり、半減期が始まったら下落します。それから徐々に価格は上昇し、ピークに達したら、また下落していく見込みです。
そしてまた上昇していくと見えます。このときの価格は2024年初期よりも高い可能性が高いです。
以下で詳しく説明しましょう。
目次
半減期により、価格が上昇する
「半減期」といい、マイニングの報酬が半減する時期が来ると言われています。これはビットコインのインフレが起きないようにするためです。報酬が半分になれば、発行量が減るため、需要が高くなります。
ビットコインは発行数に限りがあるため、金のように、購入する人が増えるほど価格も上がる仕様です。
そのため半減期の数ヶ月前に価格は一度下がり、半減期に入ってから高騰し始めると言われています。そして半減期の後に一旦下落してから緩やかに高騰すると予測されています。
FX仮想通貨で売買するのであれば、半減期に入る数ヶ月前から購入し、半減期のピークが過ぎす少し前に売るのがオススメです。
2024年春頃に半減期が来ると言われていますが、定かではありません。過去の半減期を見ても、時期が定まっていないからです。
いずれにせよ半減期により9万〜18万ドル(約1,300万〜2,600万円)までに価格は達すると言われています。(2024年9月5日時点のビットコイン価格は377万円。)
半減期以外の要素はあるのだろうか
2024年にアメリカが金利を下げるのではないか、と噂されています。もし本当であれば、仮想通貨により投資しやすくなるため、価格は上がるのではないかと言われています。
そのほか各国の仮想通貨への規制が優しくなるか厳しくなるかで、ビットコインの価格は変わるでしょう。
2024年のビットコイン価格は上昇する
半減期によってビットコイン価格は上昇するも一時的な変化であり、大きな変化は起きないとされています。ただし現時点の価格よりは上昇する見込みです。
また各国での仮想通貨に対する規制が緩くなれば、ビットコインの価格は大いに上昇する可能性はあります。各国が仮想通貨に対してどのような動きを見せるのかが重要です。
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